发布时间:2019-09-25 12:17

代写英语市场调研报告代写论文网提供英语市场调研报告,英语调研报告范文,英语市场研究报告商业文书代写,联系qq,本文是对美国房地产行业某一时段的市场研究报告,在此作为一个范例共大家分享。Think housing is recovering? Think again.
     Americans purchased homes at a surprising clip in April, but don't let that fool you into thinking the housing market is back.
    Although economists were expecting a month-over-month increase of 5.5%, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that sales of previously owned homes rose an unexpected 7.6%. That continued a yearlong rise in housing activity and marked the highest number of sales recorded since November of last year.
    It also follows a drumbeat of similarly rosy economic news signaling the possibility that the United States may be on the economic mend. Government spending has helped spur factory production. A rising stock market and an improving job market have led to greater consumer optimism, which has stimulated spending. Further reports on housing and durable goods orders, due out later this week, will likely give consumers even more reason to feel confident that a recovery is at hand.
    But prospective home buyers, particularly those tempted to think of real estate as an investment again, should tread with caution. One critical obstacle to a housing recovery remains intact: supply. Until the number of empty homes starts to shrink, prices could still fall further.
    Moreover, notes Joseph Foudy, a professor of economics and management at NYU's Stern School of Business, we're coming off of an artificial bump from the first time home buyer credit, which expired last month. He predicts the second half of this year will see sluggish economic growth and that housing prices, at best, will be flat for the next few months, while commercial real estate "is likely to see significant declines."
Government life support
    Indeed, first-time buyers accounted for nearly half of the homes purchased in April. Buying has also been spurred by historically low mortgage rates, which have been kept modest by the Federal Reserve's recently expired $1.25 trillion mortgage-securities purchase program and by lenient lending standards at the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). In all, the US government, through Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and the FHA, underpins about 95% of the mortgage market. "This is a market purely on life support, sustained by the federal government," noted FHA's head, David Stevens, at the Mortgage Bankers Association conference yesterday. His agency is tightening lending -- which could take more buyers out of the market.
    Optimists are pinning their hopes on a continuation of low mortgage rates. They note that rates could remain low because of concerns that debt problems in Europe portend a wider slowdown. Low rates help to reinforce demand. But even if these optimists are right, low rates only have so much of an effect. Despite the average 30-year rates now hovering around 4.8%, the Mortgage Bankers Association noted last week that the number of people seeking mortgage purchase applications had dropped more than 27%, reaching a level last seen in May 1997.
    More importantly, what underpins those low rates also matters. Housing prices are unlikely to rise if unemployment does, or if incomes stay stagnant. And concerns in Europe could end up destabilizing housing prices further, which would dent consumer confidence -- not a good cycle to begin a recovery.
    Also, an unintended consequence of the European debt crisis is that Libor, the benchmark borrowing rate that banks charge each other, has been on the rise, with Citigroup saying recently that it could end up a full percentage point higher within the next few months.
    That would be bad news for the real estate market in a number of ways. Libor sets the rate for about $370 trillion in debt-related financing worldwide, including a host of consumer credit cards, home equity lines, student and small business loans, and adjustable-rate mortgages, as well as derivatives, such as credit swaps. A rise in Libor would mean higher rates on adjustable-rate mortgages. More importantly, it could raise the debt load of already-strapped consumers, reducing spending and further increasing mortgage delinquencies.
 And delinquencies already account for more than 10% of all mortgages. These defaults aren't just on subprime ARMS anymore either, with prime fixed-rate loans now representing 37% of all delinquent loans. Moody's forecasts about 1.9 million homes will be taken from their owners this year, with a little over a million more going back to the banks in 2011. These can be added to the 6.3 million vacant homes currently sitting idle across America.
    Many defaults have yet to be figured into the housing market because banks are sitting on them or they are being held back due to government programs like the federal Home Affordable Modification Program. LPS Applied Analytics has estimated that banks currently have about 1.1 million foreclosed homes in their inventory and that another 4.8 million mortgages are likely to end in foreclosure. At some point these homes will go on the market, further depressing prices.
    But they won't be alone. Regular sellers have been coming out of the woodwork. NAR reported that the number of previously-owned homes placed on the market has risen quickly (reaching more than 4 million now) and that this inventory continues to far outpace the number whittled away through sales. The additional inventory is not a "healthy" development, said their chief economist, Lawrence Yun.
    And it's just going to get worse. As analysts at Zillow noted last week, U.S. homeowners are so confident in the value of their homes that many of them plan to put up for-sale signs in their front yards. Zillow said that 7% of homeowners they polled were "very likely" to try to sell their homes in the next twelve months if the housing market seemed to be improving.
    If 7% of all homeowners hit the market, that would equal about 5.3 million homes, more than the number of existing homes that sold all of last year. That's a lot of housing. Buyer beware

    代写英语市场调研报告尽管时下经济学家预计房屋销售的月涨幅为5.5%,但全美房地产经纪人协会(National Association of Realtors)却在上周报出,二手房销售涨幅达到出人意料的7.6%。这是一年来房市上涨的延续,同时也是自去年11月以来的最大销量。
    此外,约瑟夫•福迪(Joseph Foudy)表示,美国房市的增长,主要是受首次购房者税收优惠措施的提振,而该优惠已于上月到期。福迪是纽约大学斯特恩商学院(NYU's Stern School of Business)的经济学和管理学教授。他预计,今年下半年经济增长将放缓,而未来几个月,房价最多能够持平,而商业地产“可能跌幅巨大”。
    实际上,在4月份的购房者中,首次置业者占到近一半。而处于历史低位的房贷利率以及联邦住宅管理局(FHA)宽松的贷款条件,直接推动了这一轮购买热潮。美联储(Federal Reserve)最近到期的1.25万亿美元按揭证券购买计划,是利率维持在低位的原因所在。美国政府通过房利美(Fannie Mae)、房地美(Freddie Mac)及联邦住宅管理局,支撑了95%的房贷市场。对此,美国联邦住宅管理局局长戴维•史蒂文斯(David Stevens)昨天在美国抵押贷款银行家协会(Mortgage Bankers Association)大会上说:“这是一个完全依靠联邦政府支持的市场。”而联邦住宅管理局正在收紧贷款条件,这将迫使更多置业者放弃买房计划。
    因为银行暂时买单,加之由于美国政府推行的“住房可偿付调整计划”(Home Affordable Modification Program)等,不少违约房产尚未被收回,因此大量违约还没有影响到房产市场。对此,LPS Applied Analytics公司估计,目前银行手头有约110万套没收房屋,另外有480万套贷款房屋可能将被银行没收。最后,这些房屋都将进入市场,进一步打压房价。
    不仅如此,职业炒房客也已开始抛售房源。据全美不动产协会(NAR)报道,市面上的二手房数量快速增加(现已超过400万套),存量房增量大大高于正常房屋销售能够消化的数量。全美不动产协会首席经济学家劳伦斯•云(Lawrence Yun)表示,新增存量房的增幅不“健康”。